Russia’s Oil Sanctions Workarounds Mirror Iran’s Tactics as Markets Adapt
Washington's sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil sent Brent crude surging $5 to $66/barrel, yet traders anticipate Moscow will replicate Iran's shadow supply chains. The Brent/Dubai EFS spread contraction reveals Asian buyers already pivoting to Gulf crude—India's Russian imports fell 130k bpd since July, while China reconfigures flows discreetly.
Unlike August's tariff skirmishes, these sanctions carry sharper teeth. But history shows embargoes breed ingenuity: expect darkened fleets, rebranded cargoes, and currency circumvention. The oil market's resilience mirrors crypto's antifragility—both systems evolve around artificial constraints.